Predictive workforce planning: Using Workforce forecasting to Plan for Future Demand

• 10th February 2026

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Predictive workforce planning uses data and trend analysis to anticipate future staffing needs, moving beyond reactive recruitment. By applying forward-looking workforce models, NHS systems can plan capacity, skills, and investment more effectively as demand and workforce pressures change. For Integrated Care Boards (ICBs), this approach supports safer service planning, reduces reactive decision-making, and strengthens long-term sustainability.

Key Takeaways

• Safer planning: Forecast-led workforce models align future capacity with expected demand, reducing reactive staffing decisions.
• Anticipate gaps: Data-led analysis helps ICBs identify future demand and skill requirements early.
• Better investment: Forward-looking workforce models enable smarter long-term investment decisions for recruitment and training.

What is predictive workforce planning in the NHS?

Predictive workforce planning is the use of data and trend analysis to anticipate future workforce demand and supply across the health system. Instead of reacting to vacancies as they arise, forecast-led planning looks ahead to understand where skills, capacity, or roles will be needed. This approach focuses on long-term workforce sustainability rather than short-term vacancy management.

Why does workforce forecasting matter to ICBs?

Forecast-led workforce planning allows ICBs to balance the pressures of population health needs, attrition, and financial constraints, ensuring capacity and skills are planned in advance as part of effective system workforce planning.

This is a system-level responsibility that cannot be managed effectively at an individual practice level, forming a core part of the national strategy outlined in the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan.

Effective workforce planning is not just about filling vacancies; it’s about designing a sustainable, skilled, and resilient workforce that can meet the long-term health needs of the population. For ICBs, getting this right is fundamental to system success.

Adeem Azhar, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer – Core Prescribing Solutions

What data informs a workforce forecast?

A robust forecast-led model integrates multiple data streams to create a comprehensive picture of future need. Key data inputs include:

• Population demographics and deprivation data
• Activity and demand trends across services
• Current workforce numbers and skill mix
• Attrition, retirement, and vacancy rates
• Training pipelines and lead times
• Service transformation plans

This data-driven approach, often following a structured process like the Six Steps Methodology, moves planning from retrospective reporting to forward-looking insight.

How does this support system decisions?

Data-led workforce planning at a system level directly informs critical ICB decisions, enabling a more strategic and sustainable approach to building the future workforce.

System Decision Area	How Predictive workforce planning Helps
Capacity Planning	Enables safer capacity planning by matching workforce supply to forecast demand.
Recruitment Investment	Supports targeted investment by identifying future skill gaps and training needs early.
ARRS & Shared Roles	Improves use of ARRS funding by aligning roles with long-term system need.
Staffing Solutions	Reduces reliance on locums and short-term fixes through earlier planning.
Clinical Alignment	Aligns clinical strategy with workforce supply so service plans are deliverable.

FAQs